Table 6
Summary of the process phase, governmental response and effects, and revised risk measures. The initial cause of failure, measures and risk measures are discussed in Table 5. *Risk measures calculated by averaging over the last 7 days.
| Process | Governmental response and effects | Sev | Occ | Det | RPN* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First cases (22 Jan to 27 Feb) | • Travelers returned from Hubei, Iran, and certain regions of South Korea to the UK to self-isolate, even if they had no symptoms (25 Feb). • Health Protection Scotland had set up an incident management team with full contact tracing for delegates who had tested positive (27 Feb). |
1 | 10 | 9 | 90 |
| First deaths and early spread (28 Feb to 23 Mar) | • Government published its action plan for dealing with COVID-19 (3 Mar). • PM announced that £46 million had been spent on research into coronavirus vaccines and rapid diagnostic tests (6 Mar). • Chancellor of the Exchequer presented the first budget of the Johnson Government, which included £30 billion in measures to protect the economy from coronavirus (11 Mar). • Chief Medical Officers raised the national risk level from “moderate” to “high” (12 Mar). • Vice-President (US) announced an extension of its travel ban on coronavirus to include the UK (14 Mar). • PM advised against “non-essential” travel and communication, working from home and avoiding visits as pubs, clubs or theatres (16 Mar). Four days later, all cafes, pubs and restaurants were ordered to close, except for take-away food (20 Mar). • All non-essential shops, libraries, places of worship and outdoor gyms closed, and police were given authority (23 Mar). |
10 | 9 | 3 | 270 |
| First lockdown (23 Mar to 4 May) | • Health Protection Regulations 2020 applied: sweeping restrictions legally enforceable. • Contactless payment limit for in-store expenditure was increased from £30 to £45 (1 Apr). •Foreign Secretary announced a three-week extension of the lockdown measures as the number of confirmed cases exceeded 100,000 (16 Apr). •Vaccine development was underway as Matt Hancock announced the Government's £42.5m clinical trial plan to be conducted by Imperial College London and Oxford University (21 Apr). •A study involving 20,000 households in England, coordinated by the Office for National Statistics, tracked the progress of COVID-19 towards a better understanding of infection and immunity (23 Apr). |
10 | 6 | 2 | 120 |
| Easing down lockdown measures and continued restriction (5 May to 31 May) | •The Government updated its coronavirus message from “Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives” to “Stay Alert, Control the Virus, Save Lives” and announced a new “COVID-19 alert level system” ranging from green (level one to red (level five) (10 May). • Loss of smell and loss of taste were added to the list of symptoms of COVID-19 (18 May). • Following an agreement between the government and the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, the NHS provided a COVID-19 antibody test to check whether someone had the virus (21 May). • The Government laid out new quarantine rules for travellers to the UK that required them to self-isolate from 8 June for 14 days (22 May). • Contact tracing systems went live in England (NHS Test and Trace) and Scotland (Test and Protect) (28 May). |
10 | 6 | 4 | 240 |
| Continued restrictions and local lockdowns (1 June to 5 Sep) | • Wearing face masks were made compulsory on public transport (15 Jun). •Lowered the COVID-19 Alert Level from Level 4 (severe risk, high transmission) to Level 3 (substantial risk, general circulation) (19 Jun). • Trialed a new coronavirus saliva test (22 Jun). • Following an increase in COVID-19 cases in Leicester, stricter lockdown measures for the city were reintroduced (29 Jun). • Wearing face masks were made compulsory in shops and supermarkets in Scotland (Jul 10) and England (Jul 24) as well as indoor settings, such as cinemas and places of worship (31 Jul). • Introduced the month-long “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme (3 Aug). • Increased the number of tests from 28,000 in England to 150,000 by October (19 Aug). • Reopened schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland for the autumn term (1 Sep). |
4 | 8 | 5 | 160 |
| Resurgance (6 Sep to 31 Oct) | •Health Secretary informed the House of Commons that the “sharp rise” in new infections is “concerning” and a sign that the disease “remains a threat” (8 Sep). • The “rule of six” came into force in England (14 Sep). • The NHS contact-tracing app covering England and Wales was released (24 Sep). • Fines of up to £10,000 levied for people in England who failed to self-isolate themselves (28 Sep). • PM unveiled a new three-tier system of restrictions in England (14 Oct). • PM announced a second lockdown for England to prevent what he calls the “medical and moral disaster” of the NHS from 5 November to 2 December, then England will return to the tier system (31 Oct). |
5 | 6 | 5 | 150 |
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