Table 5

Summary of the process phase, cause of failures, current measures, current risk measures. The subsequent government responses and re-evaluated risk measures are discussed in Table 6. *Risk measures calculated by averaging over the first 7 days.

Process Cause of failure Current measures Sev Occ Det RPN*
First cases (22 Jan to 27 Feb)  • Failure to shut down international airlines due to imported infections from outside the UK.  •  None 1 10 10 100
First deaths and early spread (28 Feb to 23 Mar)  •No social distancing for more than 15 minutes at distances of less than 2 metres.  •Hand washing (not practiced regularly)•Social distancing (not practiced regularly) 9 9 7 567
First lockdown (23 Mar to 4 May)  •Delayed lockdown against the rising pandemic.  •  All of the above.
 •Nationwide lockdown applied in full force.
10 9 3 270
Easing down lockdown measures and continued restrictions (5 May to 31 May)  •Failure to practice safety measures once travel corridors opens and pubs, shops, restaurants and bars had reopened.
•  A vast number of sharing of potentially contaminated spaces.
 •  Sanitization of cities and towns
 •Self-isolation and “stay at home” practices
•Regular hand washing and social distancing
•  Wearing face masks
10 6 2 120
Continued restrictions and local lockdowns (1 June to 5 Sep)  •Failure to follow policies and protocols set by the government.  •Self-isolation and “stay at home” practices
•Regular sanitization, social distancing and wearing face masks
10 6 4 240
Resurgance (6 Sep to 31 Oct)  •Overcrowded restaurants during the month-long “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme in August.
 •Reopening of schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland for the autumn term.
 •  Same as the above.
 •  Curfews set across the country.
 •Tighter restrictions are put in place across the UK.
5 8 5 200

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