Table 4

A ten point severity, occurrence and detection scale with a list of criterion to reflect the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. Updated on 31 October 2020.

Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Severity Insignificant Very minor Minor Low Moderate Moderately high High Very high Extremely high Critical
Criteria S: Case fatality rate ≈0% <0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.3–0.5% 0.5–1.0% 1.0–1.5% 1.5–2.0% 2.0–2.5% 2.5–3.0% >3%
Rate of Occurrence Very remote Remote Very low Low Moderately low Moderate Moderately high High Very high Extremely high
Criteria O: Expected number of individuals infected from a single infectious person (using posterior median of the reproduction number) ≈0 <0.1 0.1–0.2 0.2–0.4 0.4–0.7 0.7–1.0 1.0–1.3 1.3–1.6 1.6–2.0 >2
Likelihood of Detection/Prevention Failure prevented Failure likely to be prevented Control measures are working Low levels of detection/prevention Not likely to detect No detection opportunity
Criteria D: Control measures (affecting the whole population) and rate of detection/prevention) Vaccine is produced with 90%+ success rate Nationwide lockdown applied in full force Nationwide lockdown gradually applied Self-isolation and “stay at home” practices Practice social distancing Sanitization of cities and towns Mandatory face coverings Regular hand washing not practiced regularly Prevention measures None

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