Table 3
Comparisons of the daily rate of infection, the overall cumulative infected population, the empiric reproduction number and the posterior averages to the reproduction number at the end of the various time periods with and without the United Kingdom protective measures.
| No measures applied | First round of lockdown applied across the UK | First round of lockdown measures lifted | International travel quarantine applied | Primary aged children return to school post lockdown | Non-essential retail reopened following guidelines | Travel corridors opens and pubs, restaurants and bars reopened | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time interval (ti, tj) | Mar. 1‑7 | Mar. 8‑22 | Mar. 23‑31 | Apr. 1‑15 | Apr. 16‑30 | May 1‑10 | May 11‑21 | May 22‑31 | June 1‑14 | June 15‑30 | July 1‑23 |
| Daily change in infections | 21.7% | 16.5% | 8.3% | −3.4% | −0.1% | −6.5% | −1.9% | −4.5% | −1.0% | −5.5% | 1.5% |
| Infections at tj−1 | 28.29 | 673.57 | 2555.57 | 4586.00 | 4614.57 | 3659.00 | 2624.14 | 1692.00 | 1016.43 | 697.29 | 632.71 |
| Infections at tj | 34.43 | 784.57 | 2767.00 | 4428.29 | 4610.14 | 3419.86 | 2574.14 | 1615.57 | 1006.71 | 658.86 | 642.14 |
| Cumulative infections | 271 | 7736 | 29,681 | 97,052 | 167,150 | 206,234 | 235,727 | 254,390 | 270,285 | 284,888 | 297,659 |
| Empirical result of ℜt | 1.983 | 1.763 | 1.397 | 0.825 | 0.995 | 0.662 | 0.904 | 0.769 | 0.952 | 0.717 | 1.074 |
| Posterior probability of ℜt ≤ 1 | 13.0% | 9.80% | 9.9% | 77.5% | 51.4% | 89.9% | 62.8% | 72.1% | 53.3% | 63.9% | 43.6% |
| Posterior mean of ℜt | 1.984 | 1.764 | 1.404 | 0.813 | 0.990 | 0.650 | 0.894 | 0.779 | 0.973 | 0.846 | 1.121 |
| Posterior median of ℜt | 1.986 | 1.773 | 1.407 | 0.814 | 0.991 | 0.648 | 0.895 | 0.768 | 0.959 | 0.800 | 1.098 |
| Posterior mode of ℜt | 2.015 | 1.793 | 1.413 | 0.813 | 0.989 | 0.649 | 0.900 | 0.760 | 0.950 | 0.705 | 1.077 |
| Mandatory face coverings in shops across England. | “Rule of six” applied in England. Increased fines up to £10,000 added shortly afterwards. | Tighter restrictions are put in place across the UK, with pubs ordered to close at 10pm. | A new three-tier system for COVID restrictions in England. | Preparing for second round of lockdown in Nov 2020. | |||||||
| Time interval (ti, tj) | July 24–31 | Aug. 1–15 | Aug. 16–31 | Sep. 1–13 | Sep. 14–18 | Sep. 19–21 | Sep 22–30 | Oct 1–11 | Oct 12–20 | Oct 21–29 | Oct 30–31 |
| Daily change in infections | 1.90% | 8.40% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 4.1% | −1.3% | 2.5% |
| Infections at tj−1 | 542.29 | 970.43 | 1164.43 | 2760.86 | 3285.71 | 3597.71 | 5769.71 | 15,504.71 | 16,956.14 | 22,147.57 | 22,124.71 |
| Infections at tj | 552.71 | 1051.71 | 1260.71 | 3001.43 | 3353.71 | 3679.00 | 6086.43 | 15,832.43 | 17,646.29 | 21,863.71 | 22,678.14 |
| Cumulative infections | 302,301 | 316,367 | 334,467 | 365,174 | 381,614 | 394,257 | 446,156 | 590,844 | 741,212 | 942,275 | 989,745 |
| Empirical result of ℜt | 1.095 | 1.402 | 1.397 | 1.418 | 1.102 | 1.112 | 1.267 | 1.105 | 1.199 | 0.936 | 1.124 |
| Posterior probability of ℜt ≤ 1 | 42.10% | 21.40% | 19.6% | 8.0% | 36.1% | 34.1% | 9.8% | 40.4% | 30.7% | 58.2% | 36.3% |
| Posterior mean of ℜt | 1.157 | 1.4 | 1.395 | 1.426 | 1.099 | 1.109 | 1.274 | 1.099 | 1.195 | 0.927 | 1.118 |
| Posterior median of ℜt | 1.129 | 1.404 | 1.400 | 1.429 | 1.101 | 1.111 | 1.275 | 1.100 | 1.198 | 0.927 | 1.121 |
| Posterior mode of ℜt | 1.099 | 1.418 | 1.413 | 1.434 | 1.107 | 1.116 | 1.109 | 1.109 | 1.207 | 0.933 | 1.128 |
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