Table 2
Posterior summary statistics for the COVID-19 pandemic using model (25). Coverage: United Kingdom, France, Portugal and Germany regions, updated on 14 September 2020.
| Region |
Dates (T − 1, T) |
cases jT |
cases jT−1 |
 |
Empirical ℜT |
 |
 |
 |
 |
90% Credibility |
| United Kingdom |
22–23 Aug 2020 |
1022.4 |
992.3 |
327,643 |
1.195 |
1.198 |
1.203 |
1.215 |
0.130 |
(0.593, 1.784) |
| 6–7 Sep 2020 |
1812.1 |
1630.3 |
352,451 |
1.483 |
1.483 |
1.486 |
1.493 |
0.074 |
(1.029, 1.923) |
| 12–13 Sep 2020 |
3001.4 |
708.7 |
370,930 |
1.430 |
1.436 |
1.438 |
1.443 |
0.047 |
(1.078, 1.788) |
| France |
22–23 Aug 2020 |
718.9 |
708.7 |
280,459 |
1.186 |
1.182 |
1.183 |
1.182 |
0.020 |
(0.951, 1.411) |
| 6–7 Sep 2020 |
1294.3 |
1261.9 |
367,174 |
1.369 |
1.364 |
1.368 |
1.378 |
0.109 |
(0.813, 1.898) |
| 12–13 Sep 2020 |
1809.6 |
1691.1 |
402,893 |
1.377 |
1.375 |
1.378 |
1.385 |
0.078 |
(0.910, 1.827) |
| Portugal |
22–23 Aug 2020 |
210.1 |
204.0 |
55,597 |
1.219 |
1.220 |
1.223 |
1.229 |
0.065 |
(0.796, 1.634) |
| 6–7 Sep 2020 |
355.7 |
356.4 |
60,507 |
1.111 |
1.108 |
1.109 |
1.113 |
0.038 |
(0.783, 1.426) |
| 12–13 Sep 2020 |
481.0 |
479.4 |
63,983 |
1.127 |
1.129 |
1.130 |
1.132 |
0.028 |
(0.850, 1.403) |
| Germany |
22–23 Aug 2020 |
1233.0 |
1223.9 |
234,494 |
1.138 |
1.133 |
1.138 |
1.147 |
0.110 |
(0.579, 1.671) |
| 6–7 Sep 2020 |
1202.6 |
1173.4 |
253,626 |
1.201 |
1.198 |
1.203 |
1.213 |
0.113 |
(0.636, 1.743) |
| 12–13 Sep 2020 |
1349.0 |
1354.7 |
261,737 |
1.079 |
1.091 |
1.096 |
1.105 |
0.100 |
(0.562, 1.606) |
