Table 1
Empirical and posterior summary statistics for the community spread of COVID-19 pandemic using model (18). Coverage: 1‑4 March 2020 in Germany and Italy.
| Time t | Today's cases jt | Yesterday's cases jt−1 | Empirical result of ℜt | Constant of integration Ct | Posterior mean of ℜt | Posterior median of ℜt | Posterior mode of ℜt | Posterior variance of ℜt | Posterior SD of ℜt |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Community spread of COVID-19 in Germany: Early March | ||||||||||
| 1 Mar 2020 | 13.71 | 6.00 | 5.133 |  |
4.948 | 5.128 | 5.007 | 1.870 | 1.367 | 0.0040 |
| 2 Mar 2020 | 16.29 | 13.71 | 1.859 |  |
1.953 | 1.869 | 1.908 | 1.076 | 1.037 | 0.2025 |
| 3 Mar 2020 | 20.29 | 16.29 | 2.098 |  |
2.093 | 2.097 | 2.078 | 0.996 | 0.998 | 0.1512 |
| 4 Mar 2020 | 25.57 | 20.29 | 2.158 |  |
2.124 | 2.160 | 2.125 | 0.857 | 0.926 | 0.1225 |
| (b) Community spread of COVID-19 in Italy: Early March | ||||||||||
| 1 Mar 2020 | 149.86 | 124.43 | 1.930 |  |
1.913 | 1.930 | 1.919 | 0.167 | 0.409 |  |
| 2 Mar 2020 | 222.43 | 149.86 | 2.975 |  |
2.963 | 2.975 | 2.967 | 0.113 | 0.336 |  |
| 3 Mar 2020 | 258.14 | 222.43 | 1.745 |  |
1.735 | 1.744 | 1.738 | 0.097 | 0.312 |  |
| 4 Mar 2020 | 311.43 | 258.14 | 1.938 |  |
1.930 | 1.938 | 1.933 | 0.080 | 0.284 |  |
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